We had some relatives come over in the weekend, from one of those little towns in Andhra Pradesh. Apparently there is a lot of confusion over in AP regarding engineering college admissions because the demand has suddenly outstripped capacity. So, this distant cousin on mine is joining a little-known college in Chennai.
This is the first time I am seeing that guy in my life so I was least bothered by the whole affair. But my uncle sought some kind of confirmation from me that he was doing the right thing, so he told me that his kid is joining the Computer Science and Engineering group and asked me if that is a good field to join.
This may seem perfectly normal and innocent, but it took me by surprise at that time, and although externally I stammered out a "Er... yes, it is the best," internally I was shocked that the basis of choosing his son's department in college was on the popular notion of which group is "good". This is a kid's life we are talking about, and one ought to be making a more informed decision! And then I sighed when I remembered that it wasn't all that different for me either.
Flash back to the year 2000. Things seemd so obvious then... IIT or local college? IIT of course. Mechanical or Chemical or Civil or Ocean engineering? Er, can't I get Computer Science? No? Too bad. Electronics? No? Ok, fine, Mechanical it is. See, the relative demands for the engineering disciplines had left me (and indeed everyone) with the impression that so-and-so group is superior to so-and-so group in terms of scope and jobs and etc. In reality we had little idea of what one actually does in those disciplines, and in any case didn't much bother to match them with our interests. Society says, engineering is better than pure sciences. Society says, CSE is better than EE and ME. Who are we lowly mortals to question the collective wisdom of Society? And how can we be so selfish as to think about our own interests when we have our Duty to Family and Society?
Wel, alright, it wasn't as bad as I am making it out to be, but it is true that I really had no idea what I was doing when I was ticking out my department preferences at the IIT-JEE counselling. I had some vague thoughts of getting into CSE because I liked computers, but then I couldn't be in an IIT. The "best" group I could get at IIT Madras was the dual degree in mechanical engineering, so I took it. Nobody, not even my brother, had bothered to give me any real counselling and tell me what was involved in taking a particular engineering major. For instance, I knew that Civil engineers planned cities, but it never occurred to me that planning road networks would involve discrete event simulation. Not that I knew what discrete event simulation was, but the point is, everybody assumed I wouldn't understand. So how am I supposed to make an informed decision if I don't understand? Why, follow the crowd!
The truth is that schools these days are so fixated upon their students getting good marks that they don't think beyond that. In spite of being in one of the best schools in the state, I received no vocational education. Having landed in Mechanical engineering, I realized that I had neither the interest nor the aptitude for it. Chemical or Civil or Ocean engineering were at least equally good choices for me, and I realized that if I had to learn electrical engineering in order to learn electronics, I would have died, so much did I hate my electrical technology courses. I managed to save my career by carefully choosing my minor stream, and jumping master's specializations from product design to intelligent manufacturing. I had finally been able to make informed decisions, and both decisions worked out splendidly for me. I had saved not just my career, but my life.
I shudder to think what would have happened if I'd got a better rank and ended up in the bachelor's program instead of the dual degree one. The Hand of Fate has given me second chances thus far, and I'm not the type to throw them away.
Flash forward to the present. The next question that my uncle asked me was, "Is that a new laptop that I saw in your room?" I frowned, "I don't have a laptop here," and my cousin interjected in exasperation, "That's called a desktop, Dad, not a laptop!"
Something about that exchange was so familiar, so natural, that I can't help but smile whenever I think about it. Perhaps kids these days are not as stupid as we were at their age. Parents will be parents, out of touch with technology and unable to guide their children at the crucial phases. But the youngsters today have the media and the internet, and are far better informed than we were. This kid had insisted on joining the CSE department even at the cost of landing in an unknown college, so he might actually know what he's doing. Might.
Cheers,
Prashanth.
Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Blowing off some steam
That last post was an uncharacteristic rant from me... I mean, hardly 3-4 of my 150-odd blog posts are rant-type. Fortunately for me, it seems to have succeeded... after re-reading a few of my favourite Feist and Asimov novels, playing a few rounds of bridge, and ranting about a few of the things that are wrong about this world, I feel normal again! I am frustu-free and raring to do stuff and enjoy this vacation. If only more of my friends lived in Chennai, or my doctor gave me a clean bill of health for traveling! Now I'll have to settle for terrorizing the local bridge clubs... and perhaps ransack a few bookstores...
Cheers,
Prashanth.
Cheers,
Prashanth.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Yellow Journalism, Green Cricket
In the old days, there were only two 24-hour news channels: BBC and CNN, and since they rarely concerned themselves with news in India, it was as good as not having a news channel at all. Today, I browse through NDTV, Headlines Today, DD News (whose standard is surprisingly right up there with the others), Times Now, etc. Note, I said etcetera. There are simply too many news channels, and they are all jostling for eyeballs and wondering how to fill their time slots when nothing newsworthy is going on.
This is probably the reason why we are seeing irresponsible yellow journalism in this time and age. I've had exposure to amateur journalism in school and college - enough to experience and understand first hand the importance of responsible journalism. Hence, I was shocked to see a segment on Headlines Today, a "sting operation" called "Operation Clean Bowled". Essentially, the reporter spoke to all the four zonal selectors with a hidden camera, asking questions about the relations between the Indian players and the coach, as well as among themselves.
First, the selectors have a right to be told that they are being filmed. They knew they were being interviewed, not filmed.
Second, anything the selectors have to say about "factions" within the cricket team and schisms between the coach and some players amounts to hearsay as they are not in the team themselves.
Third, Bhupinder Singh was the only selector who was elucidating on these things, and he seemed to be too drunk and too peeved to be taken seriously. The words of the other selectors were clearly being exaggerated and twisted out of context.
Fourth, any such opinion that is deleterious to the reputation of another person cannot be reported without their reply or rebuttal. The Headlines Today team did not even bother to ask any player of the Indian team what they thought of these comments, before broadcasting them.
It is clear to me that the channel had already decided to be as sensationalist as possible, without worrying about little things like truth, ethics or the feelings of the cricket-loving populace. In my opinion, there is only one thing that absolves their effort partially: that the Indian cricket team has been doing so badly that it had such slander coming.
I was in the US when the world cup was being played, and I didn't get a chance to watch it. However, I have watched the Bangladesh tour thus far and I am simply amazed at the drop in standard of the team. For example, one of the first deliveries I saw in the first match was a nicked delivery that flew between Dhoni and Sehwag at first slip. Both players stood rock still, expecting the other to dive for the ball. Admittedly, it was a half chance no matter who dived for it: but the point is, they should both have dived for it. The first slip stands a foot or two behind the keeper and they are not going to collide anyway. There were several more instances of such unprofessional fielding on that day, and if it weren't for some intelligent batting by Dhoni and Karthik, as well as some poor fielding by the Bangladeshi side, we would have lost the game. In fact, the Indian team is winning only because the Bangladeshis are a weak and inexperienced side. Against any other decent opposition, we would come a cropper playing this level of cricket.
Think about it. Karthik needs to work on that pull shot. Yuvraj seems to be having a technical problem with his high backlift, giving tame catches whenever the ball stops on the pitch a little bit. Sehwag still doesn't know the meaning of rotating the strike. Jaffer cannot even get off the mark. Even Sachin got out today playing a cross-batted pseudo-sweep slog off a delivery that was begging to be hit straight down the ground. It is ironic that Dhoni's ice-hockey style batting has been more effective than anyone else's.
Since the superb performance by the Indian team in the 2003 world cup, this is the first time that I am really watching a full series, and the contrast is jarring. There is a serious drop in the standard of the game in all three areas: batting, fielding and bowling in that order of severity. The Indian team really needs to get its act together before the England Tour.
Cheers
Prashanth.
This is probably the reason why we are seeing irresponsible yellow journalism in this time and age. I've had exposure to amateur journalism in school and college - enough to experience and understand first hand the importance of responsible journalism. Hence, I was shocked to see a segment on Headlines Today, a "sting operation" called "Operation Clean Bowled". Essentially, the reporter spoke to all the four zonal selectors with a hidden camera, asking questions about the relations between the Indian players and the coach, as well as among themselves.
First, the selectors have a right to be told that they are being filmed. They knew they were being interviewed, not filmed.
Second, anything the selectors have to say about "factions" within the cricket team and schisms between the coach and some players amounts to hearsay as they are not in the team themselves.
Third, Bhupinder Singh was the only selector who was elucidating on these things, and he seemed to be too drunk and too peeved to be taken seriously. The words of the other selectors were clearly being exaggerated and twisted out of context.
Fourth, any such opinion that is deleterious to the reputation of another person cannot be reported without their reply or rebuttal. The Headlines Today team did not even bother to ask any player of the Indian team what they thought of these comments, before broadcasting them.
It is clear to me that the channel had already decided to be as sensationalist as possible, without worrying about little things like truth, ethics or the feelings of the cricket-loving populace. In my opinion, there is only one thing that absolves their effort partially: that the Indian cricket team has been doing so badly that it had such slander coming.
I was in the US when the world cup was being played, and I didn't get a chance to watch it. However, I have watched the Bangladesh tour thus far and I am simply amazed at the drop in standard of the team. For example, one of the first deliveries I saw in the first match was a nicked delivery that flew between Dhoni and Sehwag at first slip. Both players stood rock still, expecting the other to dive for the ball. Admittedly, it was a half chance no matter who dived for it: but the point is, they should both have dived for it. The first slip stands a foot or two behind the keeper and they are not going to collide anyway. There were several more instances of such unprofessional fielding on that day, and if it weren't for some intelligent batting by Dhoni and Karthik, as well as some poor fielding by the Bangladeshi side, we would have lost the game. In fact, the Indian team is winning only because the Bangladeshis are a weak and inexperienced side. Against any other decent opposition, we would come a cropper playing this level of cricket.
Think about it. Karthik needs to work on that pull shot. Yuvraj seems to be having a technical problem with his high backlift, giving tame catches whenever the ball stops on the pitch a little bit. Sehwag still doesn't know the meaning of rotating the strike. Jaffer cannot even get off the mark. Even Sachin got out today playing a cross-batted pseudo-sweep slog off a delivery that was begging to be hit straight down the ground. It is ironic that Dhoni's ice-hockey style batting has been more effective than anyone else's.
Since the superb performance by the Indian team in the 2003 world cup, this is the first time that I am really watching a full series, and the contrast is jarring. There is a serious drop in the standard of the game in all three areas: batting, fielding and bowling in that order of severity. The Indian team really needs to get its act together before the England Tour.
Cheers
Prashanth.
Monday, May 21, 2007
"The Folder"
Yesterday, my Mom made an innocuous request that I hear every other year: get rid of all that old junk lying around, I need space for my work files.
So, she brought over some ancient files and folders that had somehow survived similar purgings over the years. I still hang to them for sentimental reasons. Some of the things that she dug up:
- History assignments that I'd put a lot of effort into. Looking at them now, I actually wonder if I am less hard working than I was before!
- Stuff I'd done in art and craft class. I was really awful at those, why the heck did I keep them?
- A bunch of stuff I'd written in English class: prose analysis, essays, creative writing, etc.
- A sheet of paper in which each of my classmates had written a sentence on what they thought about me! Great fun reading that after all these years!
- The original drafts of some of my poems that now live on in my poetry blog.
- The Folder.
Let me tell you a little about The Folder. It belonged to a girl I had a crush on, back in high school. Essentially, I stole it and kept it as a keepsake because she changed schools after only one year in my class :). I did find out where she was a couple of years ago, and gave her a call, reminiscing about the good ol' days. I even told her about my crush, and The Folder, and we had a good laugh about it!
But as my Mom picked up the empty folder, I told her I'd kept it for sentimental reasons but she could throw it out now. Unfortunately, she opened it, and saw the bold red letters announcing "This folder is the property of R_____." So I told her - about the girl I "liked" at that time and that she is doing her Ph.D at so-and-so university now. And promptly my Mom asked, "Is she a Brahmin?" Moms will be Moms! This was nearly as bad as when I went to visit our friend Alraqs and when I came back, my Mom asked me if she was Hindu or Muslim, and what her mother tongue was. Why do parents need to know the background of every girl a guy names "friend"? So little trust these days :D !
Still, I wonder, why I am okay with throwing away stuff that I'd been saving for so long because of sentimental reasons. I told my Mom to throw away everything, but she saved the poems and a few essays, as well as my classmates' comments. I guess I'm in bury-the-past mode now. Somehow, throwing away The Folder is symbolic to me of moving on and thinking about the future rather than the past. It is clear to me that old hurts are long healed, leaving only pleasant memories in their stead. That gives me hope that the same can happen with more recent hurts... and that is good enough for now. It means there is something to look forward to.
Cheers!
Prashanth.
So, she brought over some ancient files and folders that had somehow survived similar purgings over the years. I still hang to them for sentimental reasons. Some of the things that she dug up:
- History assignments that I'd put a lot of effort into. Looking at them now, I actually wonder if I am less hard working than I was before!
- Stuff I'd done in art and craft class. I was really awful at those, why the heck did I keep them?
- A bunch of stuff I'd written in English class: prose analysis, essays, creative writing, etc.
- A sheet of paper in which each of my classmates had written a sentence on what they thought about me! Great fun reading that after all these years!
- The original drafts of some of my poems that now live on in my poetry blog.
- The Folder.
Let me tell you a little about The Folder. It belonged to a girl I had a crush on, back in high school. Essentially, I stole it and kept it as a keepsake because she changed schools after only one year in my class :). I did find out where she was a couple of years ago, and gave her a call, reminiscing about the good ol' days. I even told her about my crush, and The Folder, and we had a good laugh about it!
But as my Mom picked up the empty folder, I told her I'd kept it for sentimental reasons but she could throw it out now. Unfortunately, she opened it, and saw the bold red letters announcing "This folder is the property of R_____." So I told her - about the girl I "liked" at that time and that she is doing her Ph.D at so-and-so university now. And promptly my Mom asked, "Is she a Brahmin?" Moms will be Moms! This was nearly as bad as when I went to visit our friend Alraqs and when I came back, my Mom asked me if she was Hindu or Muslim, and what her mother tongue was. Why do parents need to know the background of every girl a guy names "friend"? So little trust these days :D !
Still, I wonder, why I am okay with throwing away stuff that I'd been saving for so long because of sentimental reasons. I told my Mom to throw away everything, but she saved the poems and a few essays, as well as my classmates' comments. I guess I'm in bury-the-past mode now. Somehow, throwing away The Folder is symbolic to me of moving on and thinking about the future rather than the past. It is clear to me that old hurts are long healed, leaving only pleasant memories in their stead. That gives me hope that the same can happen with more recent hurts... and that is good enough for now. It means there is something to look forward to.
Cheers!
Prashanth.
Saturday, May 19, 2007
Favourite Sci-Fi/Fantasy Characters
I saw this post on Sakshi's blog and decided to tag myself. Unlike Sakshi, I am talking about well-crafted characters, rather than ones to lust after :) and I am restricting myself to Sci-Fi and Fantasy genres. This is only because I want you guys to read these books - there do exist non-scifi, non-fantasy characters I like, I swear!
Nakor, from Raymond Feist's Midkemia novels. This guy appears to be a harmless prankster and trickster at first glance, with his perpetual grin and priestly background. Of course, once you are at the receiving end of his martial arts or magic spells, you would think differently. Even then, he would be the first one to tell you, there is no such thing as magic.
R. Daneel Olivaw, spanning Isaac Asimov's Elijah Baley novels all the way upto the end of the Foundation series. Why the heck am I including his initial? That's because the R stands for Robot. That's right, Daneel starts off as a robot police detective on Planet Aurora, but his friend R. Giskard's dying "gift" leaves him with the power to read and influence minds, and the responsibility to save mankind from itself.
Drizzt Do'Urden, Robert A. Salvatore's character who made dark elves the favourite RPG race overnight. Drizzt is a renegade dark elf, spurning a society in which deceit and murder are routine in a complex and never-ending game of politics. Escaping from their underground city, he arrives at the surface to find himself shunned and feared simply because of the reputation of his race. Drizzt's prowess with dual scimitars and his duels with the assassin Artemis Entreri are the stuff of legend in fantasy circles.
Mat Cauthon, the "luckiest" man in Robert Jordan's Wheel of Time series. Mat survives an episode with a cursed dagger, only to find that he's been left with an unexpected side effect: the Devil's Luck. In all purely random circumstances, he finds himself getting the "best" possible result. Try explaining to your gambling friends why your dice always land as sixes! Jordan excels in crafting Mat's destiny to convert Rand al Thor's implacable enemy into an ally to stand against Shai'tan at Tarmon Gai'don, the final battle.
Ganoes Paran, a young nobleman in Steven Erikson's series, the Malazan Book of the Fallen. Ganoes has the misfortune of being a nobleman commanding an army squadron in times when nobleman aren't exactly popular among the common man, or the army. Finding himself the pawn of the Gods as much as the pawn of the Empress, he finds himself attacked and saved by men, Gods, Ascendants, hounds, demons and more as he becomes embroiled in a war in which the order of the Gods itself can be upset. Since he defies all attempts at manipulation by the Gods, they agree to name him the neutral "Master of the Deck" - and suddenly, Ganoes is the one manipulating the Gods.
Raistlin Majere, from the Dragonlance novels written by Margaret Weis and Tracy Hickman. Never in any of the books will you be able to figure out if this powerful magician is good or evil! One of the most compelling and mysterious characters ever created, here is a man who has a love-and-hate relationship with every other character in the series. The only thing they can agree upon about him is that he is selfish. And yet, the only thing he wants from a dragon's hoard is a measly little spellbook. Does that mean he isn't selfish? Actually, no!
Danaerys Targaryen, an exiled princess in George R.R. Martin's A Song of Ice and Fire series. Finding herself across the ocean from the kingdom of which she is the rightful heir, she finds herself routinely tortured by her mad brother and then sold to a barbarian king as a wife. How she extricates herself from that position into one in which she leads a massive army and commands dragons in her quest to reclaim her throne makes a fascinating read.
Fitzchivalry Farseer, a truly complex and compelling character created by Robin Hobb (or Megan Lindholm or Margaret Ogden). Fitz is the bastard son of a prince, and as such the King is faced with one of two decisions: kill the child, or use him. He chooses the latter, luckily for Fitz... or is it unlucky? For Fitz finds himself being trained as an Assassin, and finds himself an unlikely hero in a strange war against a stranger enemy.
Vanyel Ashkevron, the Last Herald Mage in Mercedes Lackey novels. Vanyel is a proud Herald of Valdemar, chosen by spirits as a Guardian of the Kingdom. He is but an average student, until a tragic accident leaves his lover killed and himself... well, his magic channels get blasted open, making him potentially the most powerful Herald on Valdemar - if he can learn to control his now runaway gifts.
Salvor Hardin, from Isaac Asimov's Foundation series. My favourite quote belongs to him: "Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right." If that appears to be a strange philosophy for a compassionate-type guy like me to have, read the book! Hardin rises to power as the Mayor of the Planet Terminus, whose ostensible purpose is to save all knowledge before the Galactic Empire collapses. Hardin, in a flash of insight, understands the legendary Hari Seldon's plan to re-establish order in the Galaxy - unfortunately, he has to figure out the exact plan for himself, as Seldon says that the act of revealing the probable future straight away invalidates all calculations!
I've provided Wikipedia links where possible, but if you want to know more about anyone, just ask! Or, even better, read the books!
Cheers,
Prashanth.
Nakor, from Raymond Feist's Midkemia novels. This guy appears to be a harmless prankster and trickster at first glance, with his perpetual grin and priestly background. Of course, once you are at the receiving end of his martial arts or magic spells, you would think differently. Even then, he would be the first one to tell you, there is no such thing as magic.
R. Daneel Olivaw, spanning Isaac Asimov's Elijah Baley novels all the way upto the end of the Foundation series. Why the heck am I including his initial? That's because the R stands for Robot. That's right, Daneel starts off as a robot police detective on Planet Aurora, but his friend R. Giskard's dying "gift" leaves him with the power to read and influence minds, and the responsibility to save mankind from itself.
Drizzt Do'Urden, Robert A. Salvatore's character who made dark elves the favourite RPG race overnight. Drizzt is a renegade dark elf, spurning a society in which deceit and murder are routine in a complex and never-ending game of politics. Escaping from their underground city, he arrives at the surface to find himself shunned and feared simply because of the reputation of his race. Drizzt's prowess with dual scimitars and his duels with the assassin Artemis Entreri are the stuff of legend in fantasy circles.
Mat Cauthon, the "luckiest" man in Robert Jordan's Wheel of Time series. Mat survives an episode with a cursed dagger, only to find that he's been left with an unexpected side effect: the Devil's Luck. In all purely random circumstances, he finds himself getting the "best" possible result. Try explaining to your gambling friends why your dice always land as sixes! Jordan excels in crafting Mat's destiny to convert Rand al Thor's implacable enemy into an ally to stand against Shai'tan at Tarmon Gai'don, the final battle.
Ganoes Paran, a young nobleman in Steven Erikson's series, the Malazan Book of the Fallen. Ganoes has the misfortune of being a nobleman commanding an army squadron in times when nobleman aren't exactly popular among the common man, or the army. Finding himself the pawn of the Gods as much as the pawn of the Empress, he finds himself attacked and saved by men, Gods, Ascendants, hounds, demons and more as he becomes embroiled in a war in which the order of the Gods itself can be upset. Since he defies all attempts at manipulation by the Gods, they agree to name him the neutral "Master of the Deck" - and suddenly, Ganoes is the one manipulating the Gods.
Raistlin Majere, from the Dragonlance novels written by Margaret Weis and Tracy Hickman. Never in any of the books will you be able to figure out if this powerful magician is good or evil! One of the most compelling and mysterious characters ever created, here is a man who has a love-and-hate relationship with every other character in the series. The only thing they can agree upon about him is that he is selfish. And yet, the only thing he wants from a dragon's hoard is a measly little spellbook. Does that mean he isn't selfish? Actually, no!
Danaerys Targaryen, an exiled princess in George R.R. Martin's A Song of Ice and Fire series. Finding herself across the ocean from the kingdom of which she is the rightful heir, she finds herself routinely tortured by her mad brother and then sold to a barbarian king as a wife. How she extricates herself from that position into one in which she leads a massive army and commands dragons in her quest to reclaim her throne makes a fascinating read.
Fitzchivalry Farseer, a truly complex and compelling character created by Robin Hobb (or Megan Lindholm or Margaret Ogden). Fitz is the bastard son of a prince, and as such the King is faced with one of two decisions: kill the child, or use him. He chooses the latter, luckily for Fitz... or is it unlucky? For Fitz finds himself being trained as an Assassin, and finds himself an unlikely hero in a strange war against a stranger enemy.
Vanyel Ashkevron, the Last Herald Mage in Mercedes Lackey novels. Vanyel is a proud Herald of Valdemar, chosen by spirits as a Guardian of the Kingdom. He is but an average student, until a tragic accident leaves his lover killed and himself... well, his magic channels get blasted open, making him potentially the most powerful Herald on Valdemar - if he can learn to control his now runaway gifts.
Salvor Hardin, from Isaac Asimov's Foundation series. My favourite quote belongs to him: "Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right." If that appears to be a strange philosophy for a compassionate-type guy like me to have, read the book! Hardin rises to power as the Mayor of the Planet Terminus, whose ostensible purpose is to save all knowledge before the Galactic Empire collapses. Hardin, in a flash of insight, understands the legendary Hari Seldon's plan to re-establish order in the Galaxy - unfortunately, he has to figure out the exact plan for himself, as Seldon says that the act of revealing the probable future straight away invalidates all calculations!
I've provided Wikipedia links where possible, but if you want to know more about anyone, just ask! Or, even better, read the books!
Cheers,
Prashanth.
Friday, May 11, 2007
Global Warming Facts - Part 1
(I'm referring to news articles rather than scientific articles, and avoiding technical discussions in order to keep this article readable to everybody.)
If I told you that the Ganges and the Brahmaputra will both dry up by the year 2035, how hard would you laugh at me? Now, what if it was the world's leading scientific authority on climate change that told you?
I'm sure every one of us knows at least a little bit about global warming: that it is primarily caused by the greenhouse effect, and that greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere have been rising because of industrialization and deforestation, that rising global temperatures will melt polar ice caps thus causing sea levels to rise, and so on. However, until recently, we've all been led to believe that we have a century or two to cut greenhouse emissions and quell the problem. The key phrase there is "until recently", because climate science has now progressed enough to tell us how bad the situation really is.
How bad will India be hit?
The first sentence of this article must have sent alarm bells ringing in your head. But a little thought will tell you why the Ganges will dry up, if not when: the Ganges, and indeed all perennial rivers in North India, are fed by glaciers in the Himalayas. As global temperatures rise, the glaciers receive snow later and start melting earlier, causing them to gradually fall back to the colder regions. This news article [1] in the Hindu has a detailed discussion about the effect of global warming on glaciers. The world's leading authority on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), believes that all North Indian rivers will turn seasonal, and ultimately dry up by the year 2035 itself if global warming remains unchecked.
But there's more. Another news article [2] confirms our worst fears: inundation of low-lying areas along the coastline owing to rising sea levels; drastic increase in heat-related deaths; dropping water tables; decreased crop productivity are some of the horrors outlined for us. Falling crop productivity due to the change in the length of the seasons is of particular concern, because there is an acute shortage of arable land in our country. With the population still growing rapidly, and crop productivity dropping, combined with the fact that we are already facing a grain shortage this year and have been forced to procure from abroad, the situation appears dire.
Is it fair? The major contributors to the greenhouse effect thus far are the developed nations, and even on an absolute basis (let us not even go into a per-capita basis), India's contribution to global warming is very little. And yet, we will be among the first to suffer its effects, as the change in climate will decrease crop productivity near the equator but actually increase it in the temperate regions. Effectively, the third world has been offered a very raw deal: suffer for something you didn't do, and still bear the yoke of cutting emissions because, frankly, at this point our planet needs all the help it can get.
How high is safe?
Let us leave India's concerns aside for now, take a step back and look at the global picture. Global temperatures have risen about 0.6 C on an average in the past century. There is a worldwide consensus among scientific circles that the adverse effects of global warming will probably be manageable for a rise in temperature upto 2 C, but beyond that, melting ice caps, unbalanced ecosystems, drastically reduced crop yields, etc. will cause worldwide disaster of monstrous proportions. If I haven't painted the picture clearly enough for you, read this article [3] and this article [4] detailing exactly what countries like Canada and Australia can expect in terms of "disaster".
But, is this where you heave a sigh and think, if it takes a century for the temperature to rise 0.6 C, then we have plenty of time to remedy the situation before the rise reaches 2 C? Wrong. You see, there is a lag between the rise in greenhouse gases and the rise in global temperatures. Scientists give the analogy of heating a metal plate directly, and then indirectly, by placing a metal block between the plate and the heat source: when you place the block, it takes some time before an increase in temperature at the heat source affects the plate; at the same time, if the heat source stabilizes or drops in temperature, the plate will continue to increase in temperature for a while before stabilizing or dropping. Thus, the increase in temperature now is a direct effect of rising greenhouse gas levels sometime in the 20th century. We are yet to reap the effect of the carbon dioxide we are currently dumping into the atmosphere! And the fact is, the amount of greenhouse gases that have been going into the atmosphere has been steadily accelerating over the past century.
So, where should we hold greenhouse gas levels in order to hold the global temperature rise to 2 C? The answer cannot be explained in one sentence, because there is some statistics involved. We cannot accurately predict the temperature rise from carbon dioxide levels yet; we have to talk in terms of probabilities. A recent study by Meinshausen et al. [5] gives some startling numbers. This is actually explained in much simpler terms in this press article [6]. The gist of it is that, we are already past the safe limit! You see, the current level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere stands at 459 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent (the actual concentration of CO2, corrected to include the effect of other greenhouse gases). According to the Meinshausen study, if atmospheric greenhouse concentrations are maintained at 450 ppm, the probability of global temperature rise crossing 2 C reaches unacceptable levels (> 50%). The current EU target is 550 ppm - at that level, we will be looking at a rise of around 3 C! In other words, emissions across the world should already be decreasing, not increasing at an accelerating pace. Countries around the world should be spending a significant percentage of their GDPs to save the planet, but everyone seems reluctant to move.
Panels and Reports
I had mentioned the IPCC earlier. The IPCC was formed by the UN and has actually been around since 1988. Over the years, it has established itself as the world's leading authority on climate change. It publishes its findings periodically, the assessment reports published this year being the fourth set, and the most controversial one because it reads more like a disaster movie script than a scientific report. Actually, there had been protests over the previous report that the IPCC is being alarmist, and the UK government ordered an independent study be made (a committee was appointed, led by Nicholas Stern), and its findings were released at the end of October 2006. The Stern Review actually reported that the IPCC had understated the situation in the third assessment report. You see, climate science is far from exact, and the IPCC tends to err on the conservative side. There are already publications that say that the IPCC has been conservative even in the fourth report - read this news article [7].
Perhaps the most important thing that the fourth assessment report has accomplished is that it has finally laid to rest claims that global warming is a myth. Yes, until a few years ago, there wasn't even a global consensus on whether global warming is the fault of man, because the waters got muddied by studies that showed that greenhouse gases, while absorbing heat radiated by the earth, happened to reflect sunlight coming in, thus reducing temperatures. Further, it is believed that geologically, the world is headed towards an ice age. Increasing global temperatures were attributed to periodic properties of the Sun! Now, at last, all these speculations have been laid to rest, and IPCC has stated that there is a 90% probability that the phenomenon of increasing global temperatures is anthropogenic (caused by man), and primarily because of greenhouse gases - what we've suspected all along. India, too, has finally woken up to the threat, and has set up a panel [Citation needed] to investigate the specific effects of global warming on India over the next few decades, and what remedial measures are feasible. The panel is to be headed by Mr. Pachauri himself, the current head of the IPCC.
To be continued...
In the next part: The Kyoto Protocol, Emissions Trading, Extreme weather events, Bush-bashing, cows, bees and more!
References
[1] The Great Himalayan Meltdown
[2] Climate Change Will Devastate India
[3] Dire consequences if global warming exceeds 2 degrees says IUCN release
[4] Two degrees of separation from disaster
[5] M. Meinshausen "What Does a 2 C Target Mean for Greenhouse Gas Concentrations? A Brief Analysis Based on Multi-Gas Emission Pathways and Several Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty Estimates." in H. Schellnhuber, et al., eds. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, New York, 2006)
[6] The rich world's policy on greenhouse gas now seems clear: millions will die
[7] Some scientists protest draft of warming report
If I told you that the Ganges and the Brahmaputra will both dry up by the year 2035, how hard would you laugh at me? Now, what if it was the world's leading scientific authority on climate change that told you?
I'm sure every one of us knows at least a little bit about global warming: that it is primarily caused by the greenhouse effect, and that greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere have been rising because of industrialization and deforestation, that rising global temperatures will melt polar ice caps thus causing sea levels to rise, and so on. However, until recently, we've all been led to believe that we have a century or two to cut greenhouse emissions and quell the problem. The key phrase there is "until recently", because climate science has now progressed enough to tell us how bad the situation really is.
How bad will India be hit?
The first sentence of this article must have sent alarm bells ringing in your head. But a little thought will tell you why the Ganges will dry up, if not when: the Ganges, and indeed all perennial rivers in North India, are fed by glaciers in the Himalayas. As global temperatures rise, the glaciers receive snow later and start melting earlier, causing them to gradually fall back to the colder regions. This news article [1] in the Hindu has a detailed discussion about the effect of global warming on glaciers. The world's leading authority on climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), believes that all North Indian rivers will turn seasonal, and ultimately dry up by the year 2035 itself if global warming remains unchecked.
But there's more. Another news article [2] confirms our worst fears: inundation of low-lying areas along the coastline owing to rising sea levels; drastic increase in heat-related deaths; dropping water tables; decreased crop productivity are some of the horrors outlined for us. Falling crop productivity due to the change in the length of the seasons is of particular concern, because there is an acute shortage of arable land in our country. With the population still growing rapidly, and crop productivity dropping, combined with the fact that we are already facing a grain shortage this year and have been forced to procure from abroad, the situation appears dire.
Is it fair? The major contributors to the greenhouse effect thus far are the developed nations, and even on an absolute basis (let us not even go into a per-capita basis), India's contribution to global warming is very little. And yet, we will be among the first to suffer its effects, as the change in climate will decrease crop productivity near the equator but actually increase it in the temperate regions. Effectively, the third world has been offered a very raw deal: suffer for something you didn't do, and still bear the yoke of cutting emissions because, frankly, at this point our planet needs all the help it can get.
How high is safe?
Let us leave India's concerns aside for now, take a step back and look at the global picture. Global temperatures have risen about 0.6 C on an average in the past century. There is a worldwide consensus among scientific circles that the adverse effects of global warming will probably be manageable for a rise in temperature upto 2 C, but beyond that, melting ice caps, unbalanced ecosystems, drastically reduced crop yields, etc. will cause worldwide disaster of monstrous proportions. If I haven't painted the picture clearly enough for you, read this article [3] and this article [4] detailing exactly what countries like Canada and Australia can expect in terms of "disaster".
But, is this where you heave a sigh and think, if it takes a century for the temperature to rise 0.6 C, then we have plenty of time to remedy the situation before the rise reaches 2 C? Wrong. You see, there is a lag between the rise in greenhouse gases and the rise in global temperatures. Scientists give the analogy of heating a metal plate directly, and then indirectly, by placing a metal block between the plate and the heat source: when you place the block, it takes some time before an increase in temperature at the heat source affects the plate; at the same time, if the heat source stabilizes or drops in temperature, the plate will continue to increase in temperature for a while before stabilizing or dropping. Thus, the increase in temperature now is a direct effect of rising greenhouse gas levels sometime in the 20th century. We are yet to reap the effect of the carbon dioxide we are currently dumping into the atmosphere! And the fact is, the amount of greenhouse gases that have been going into the atmosphere has been steadily accelerating over the past century.
So, where should we hold greenhouse gas levels in order to hold the global temperature rise to 2 C? The answer cannot be explained in one sentence, because there is some statistics involved. We cannot accurately predict the temperature rise from carbon dioxide levels yet; we have to talk in terms of probabilities. A recent study by Meinshausen et al. [5] gives some startling numbers. This is actually explained in much simpler terms in this press article [6]. The gist of it is that, we are already past the safe limit! You see, the current level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere stands at 459 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent (the actual concentration of CO2, corrected to include the effect of other greenhouse gases). According to the Meinshausen study, if atmospheric greenhouse concentrations are maintained at 450 ppm, the probability of global temperature rise crossing 2 C reaches unacceptable levels (> 50%). The current EU target is 550 ppm - at that level, we will be looking at a rise of around 3 C! In other words, emissions across the world should already be decreasing, not increasing at an accelerating pace. Countries around the world should be spending a significant percentage of their GDPs to save the planet, but everyone seems reluctant to move.
Panels and Reports
I had mentioned the IPCC earlier. The IPCC was formed by the UN and has actually been around since 1988. Over the years, it has established itself as the world's leading authority on climate change. It publishes its findings periodically, the assessment reports published this year being the fourth set, and the most controversial one because it reads more like a disaster movie script than a scientific report. Actually, there had been protests over the previous report that the IPCC is being alarmist, and the UK government ordered an independent study be made (a committee was appointed, led by Nicholas Stern), and its findings were released at the end of October 2006. The Stern Review actually reported that the IPCC had understated the situation in the third assessment report. You see, climate science is far from exact, and the IPCC tends to err on the conservative side. There are already publications that say that the IPCC has been conservative even in the fourth report - read this news article [7].
Perhaps the most important thing that the fourth assessment report has accomplished is that it has finally laid to rest claims that global warming is a myth. Yes, until a few years ago, there wasn't even a global consensus on whether global warming is the fault of man, because the waters got muddied by studies that showed that greenhouse gases, while absorbing heat radiated by the earth, happened to reflect sunlight coming in, thus reducing temperatures. Further, it is believed that geologically, the world is headed towards an ice age. Increasing global temperatures were attributed to periodic properties of the Sun! Now, at last, all these speculations have been laid to rest, and IPCC has stated that there is a 90% probability that the phenomenon of increasing global temperatures is anthropogenic (caused by man), and primarily because of greenhouse gases - what we've suspected all along. India, too, has finally woken up to the threat, and has set up a panel [Citation needed] to investigate the specific effects of global warming on India over the next few decades, and what remedial measures are feasible. The panel is to be headed by Mr. Pachauri himself, the current head of the IPCC.
To be continued...
In the next part: The Kyoto Protocol, Emissions Trading, Extreme weather events, Bush-bashing, cows, bees and more!
References
[1] The Great Himalayan Meltdown
[2] Climate Change Will Devastate India
[3] Dire consequences if global warming exceeds 2 degrees says IUCN release
[4] Two degrees of separation from disaster
[5] M. Meinshausen "What Does a 2 C Target Mean for Greenhouse Gas Concentrations? A Brief Analysis Based on Multi-Gas Emission Pathways and Several Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty Estimates." in H. Schellnhuber, et al., eds. Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, New York, 2006)
[6] The rich world's policy on greenhouse gas now seems clear: millions will die
[7] Some scientists protest draft of warming report
Wednesday, May 09, 2007
Joyous news...
A breath of fresh air for a family riddled with nothing but ill news for a long time: I now have a nephew! This being the first birth in this generation on either side of the family, there has been even more phone-calling, hand-shaking, back-slapping and teary-eye-wiping than such an event would normally draw.
I've realized that my depression has crept into my tone in my blog as well, and it's only fair that my joy should show as well. Expect my writings to change from tragic-type stuff about myself to... er... for now, tragic-type stuff about the rest of the world *grin*. You see, my next post is going to be on Global Warming for the science blog, to which I haven't contributed in a really long time.
Cheers - and I mean it!
Prashanth.
I've realized that my depression has crept into my tone in my blog as well, and it's only fair that my joy should show as well. Expect my writings to change from tragic-type stuff about myself to... er... for now, tragic-type stuff about the rest of the world *grin*. You see, my next post is going to be on Global Warming for the science blog, to which I haven't contributed in a really long time.
Cheers - and I mean it!
Prashanth.
Tuesday, May 08, 2007
For a fine cut....
It was one of those days in the hospital, when I was in pain and mentally at a record low. My Mom was holding my hand and chanting prayers to Dhanvanthri, the God of Health, reading from a little sloka book.
I have high regard for prayers, as they are pure expressions of goodwill. If you've ever sent a prayer my way, you've earned yourself a kiss (er... a handshake if you're a guy!). Still, if you ask me whether I believe prayers can help in healing, I would say, "Not really, though I guess the possibility exists." See, I'm an agnostic at heart.
That's why I asked my Mom, "The next time you pray, ask God, why me. Ask Him what I did to deserve this." She didn't say much at that time. But a day later, she recounted some things she'd told me before. My Mom believes that I am destined to do great things. In my Mom's dictionary (as well as mine), that means I will do service to mankind - helping a lot of people directly or indirectly. Of course, all Moms think their sons will do great things, but every astrologer who's seen my horoscope and every palmist who's seen my palm has told her the same thing, and my Mom puts great stock in such things (but I don't).
And then she wrapped it up by saying words to the effect that God sets the sternest tests for those with the most potential.
Ouch! How does she do it? She'd just scored a bull's eye. You see, that's my philosophy, too, and I'm positive I've never spoken to her about it. Not the God part, the rest of it. Put in Mechanical Engineering terms (yes, I'm incorrigible), use the hardest tool for the finest cut. For shaping the finest jobs, you would use a diamond tool. In other words, if you're a teacher or mentor figure, the better they are, the tougher you must be to help them realize their potential. Explaining how deeply this is ingrained in me merits a small story.
My elder brother went to the same school I did, and he would often tell me about a horrific chemistry teacher. He ended up hating the subject because of her, and tended to perform poorly. I had this gargoyle-type impression of her, reinforced by stories I'd heard from a lot of people. When she finally started teaching my class, I found out that she was every bit as ruthless as people said she was. There was not a shred of leniency in her homework and exam corrections; she made unreasonable demands and expected everyone to cope up, and punished them when they didn't; the slightest misbehaviour inside her class or outside in her range of vision was swiftly dealt with.
I still had no trouble with chemistry, it being one of my stronger subjects. One incident sticks in my memory: the teacher had asked a question in class that nobody could answer because it was not in the text (not that anybody would have read the text in advance of the class!). So, she asked us to find out the answer for homework and submit it the next day - with a rather high minimum length of writing. It was an interesting question, and fortunately I had my brother's IIT-JEE reference books, so I did a little research and penned the answer with some flourishing language in order to fill up the sheet. I duly submitted it in class the next day, only to find that nobody else had done it, as it was outside of our syllabus.
After a lengthy diatribe to the class, she read out my answer. Complete with english words that many people in the class probably never heard, and references from IIT-level texts. I sank lower and lower in my chair. The class already hated me for consistently getting the first rank; I wondered if I would get lynched anytime soon. But wait, that wasn't the worst of it. You see, I'd made a good impression on her. How her eyes glinted that day! Ah, those evil eyes!
A year passed, and one day I found myself unceremoniously summoned to the chemistry lab.
Her: You missed the chemistry practical class yesterday.
Me (bewildered): Yes, I was sent to that inter-school quiz contest.
(See, we won it and it was announced in the assembly earlier that morning. So she very well knew why I missed the class.)
Her: If you are missing a practical class, you have to take permission from me in advance and schedule a make-up session.
Me: But, it was the Principal who sent me to the contest, so I assumed that was permission.
(I'm fourteen years old, for heaven's sake. What teacher would punish me over a technicality when I'd missed the class in order to win laurels for the school?)
Her: That only means I would give you permission to miss the class without argument. I'm giving you a zero on that experiment.
I was stunned, but offered no argument because technically she was right. It was exactly the kind of thing she would do, but I seriously didn't think she would be that heartless, as it costs her nothing to let me attend the make-up sessions specially set aside for such situations in the academic calendar.
That term, I scored 451/500 in total on my exams. A bright new girl in our class had scored 452. Calculation revealed that the zero in the lab class had cost me 2 marks overall - which meant that zero had cost me my first rank, breaking a seven-year streak. I didn't care that much, because I acknowledged my mistake (however small it was), and I knew I should have done way better than 451 (which, by the way, is exactly the kind of attitude that people mistake for arrogance - sorry for repeating this). But the story spread like wildfire, and people were extremely sympathetic. Me, I was grinning, for I'd figured this teacher out. I knew what she was doing. I already suspected that she'd graded my exam papers even more strictly than she normally does. Basically, she was pushing me to do better than I usually did. I appreciated the sentiment.
She was probably the most hated teacher in the school, but not by me, and as the years passed, she would talk to me on occasion. I remember very well, we had a free period in which she sat in our class just to ensure we didn't get too loud. I had a long conversation with her then about science and spirituality, and things like pranic healing etc. which I was familiar with because of my Mom. I always got the feeling that she was trying to tell me something important that day, which I didn't quite grasp exactly, but understood at some level, in my heart.
Thus, I have this to say, if there is a God: Hi. I understand. I don't hate you.
I have high regard for prayers, as they are pure expressions of goodwill. If you've ever sent a prayer my way, you've earned yourself a kiss (er... a handshake if you're a guy!). Still, if you ask me whether I believe prayers can help in healing, I would say, "Not really, though I guess the possibility exists." See, I'm an agnostic at heart.
That's why I asked my Mom, "The next time you pray, ask God, why me. Ask Him what I did to deserve this." She didn't say much at that time. But a day later, she recounted some things she'd told me before. My Mom believes that I am destined to do great things. In my Mom's dictionary (as well as mine), that means I will do service to mankind - helping a lot of people directly or indirectly. Of course, all Moms think their sons will do great things, but every astrologer who's seen my horoscope and every palmist who's seen my palm has told her the same thing, and my Mom puts great stock in such things (but I don't).
And then she wrapped it up by saying words to the effect that God sets the sternest tests for those with the most potential.
Ouch! How does she do it? She'd just scored a bull's eye. You see, that's my philosophy, too, and I'm positive I've never spoken to her about it. Not the God part, the rest of it. Put in Mechanical Engineering terms (yes, I'm incorrigible), use the hardest tool for the finest cut. For shaping the finest jobs, you would use a diamond tool. In other words, if you're a teacher or mentor figure, the better they are, the tougher you must be to help them realize their potential. Explaining how deeply this is ingrained in me merits a small story.
My elder brother went to the same school I did, and he would often tell me about a horrific chemistry teacher. He ended up hating the subject because of her, and tended to perform poorly. I had this gargoyle-type impression of her, reinforced by stories I'd heard from a lot of people. When she finally started teaching my class, I found out that she was every bit as ruthless as people said she was. There was not a shred of leniency in her homework and exam corrections; she made unreasonable demands and expected everyone to cope up, and punished them when they didn't; the slightest misbehaviour inside her class or outside in her range of vision was swiftly dealt with.
I still had no trouble with chemistry, it being one of my stronger subjects. One incident sticks in my memory: the teacher had asked a question in class that nobody could answer because it was not in the text (not that anybody would have read the text in advance of the class!). So, she asked us to find out the answer for homework and submit it the next day - with a rather high minimum length of writing. It was an interesting question, and fortunately I had my brother's IIT-JEE reference books, so I did a little research and penned the answer with some flourishing language in order to fill up the sheet. I duly submitted it in class the next day, only to find that nobody else had done it, as it was outside of our syllabus.
After a lengthy diatribe to the class, she read out my answer. Complete with english words that many people in the class probably never heard, and references from IIT-level texts. I sank lower and lower in my chair. The class already hated me for consistently getting the first rank; I wondered if I would get lynched anytime soon. But wait, that wasn't the worst of it. You see, I'd made a good impression on her. How her eyes glinted that day! Ah, those evil eyes!
A year passed, and one day I found myself unceremoniously summoned to the chemistry lab.
Her: You missed the chemistry practical class yesterday.
Me (bewildered): Yes, I was sent to that inter-school quiz contest.
(See, we won it and it was announced in the assembly earlier that morning. So she very well knew why I missed the class.)
Her: If you are missing a practical class, you have to take permission from me in advance and schedule a make-up session.
Me: But, it was the Principal who sent me to the contest, so I assumed that was permission.
(I'm fourteen years old, for heaven's sake. What teacher would punish me over a technicality when I'd missed the class in order to win laurels for the school?)
Her: That only means I would give you permission to miss the class without argument. I'm giving you a zero on that experiment.
I was stunned, but offered no argument because technically she was right. It was exactly the kind of thing she would do, but I seriously didn't think she would be that heartless, as it costs her nothing to let me attend the make-up sessions specially set aside for such situations in the academic calendar.
That term, I scored 451/500 in total on my exams. A bright new girl in our class had scored 452. Calculation revealed that the zero in the lab class had cost me 2 marks overall - which meant that zero had cost me my first rank, breaking a seven-year streak. I didn't care that much, because I acknowledged my mistake (however small it was), and I knew I should have done way better than 451 (which, by the way, is exactly the kind of attitude that people mistake for arrogance - sorry for repeating this). But the story spread like wildfire, and people were extremely sympathetic. Me, I was grinning, for I'd figured this teacher out. I knew what she was doing. I already suspected that she'd graded my exam papers even more strictly than she normally does. Basically, she was pushing me to do better than I usually did. I appreciated the sentiment.
She was probably the most hated teacher in the school, but not by me, and as the years passed, she would talk to me on occasion. I remember very well, we had a free period in which she sat in our class just to ensure we didn't get too loud. I had a long conversation with her then about science and spirituality, and things like pranic healing etc. which I was familiar with because of my Mom. I always got the feeling that she was trying to tell me something important that day, which I didn't quite grasp exactly, but understood at some level, in my heart.
Thus, I have this to say, if there is a God: Hi. I understand. I don't hate you.
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